Identification and future description of warming signatures over Pakistan with special emphasis on evolution of CO 2 levels and temperature during the first decade of the twenty-first century

Abstract

Like other developing countries, Pakistan is also facing changes in temperature per decade and other climatic abnormalities like droughts and torrential rains. In order to assess and identify the extent of temperature change over Pakistan, the whole Pakistan was divided into five climatic zones ranging from very cold to hot and dry climates. Similarly, seasons in Pakistan are defined on the basis of monsoon variability as winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon. This study primarily focuses on the comparison of surface temperature observations from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) network with PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model simulations. Results indicate that PRECIS underestimates the temperature in Northern Pakistan and during the winter season. However, there exists a fair agreement between PRECIS output and observed datasets in the lower plain and hot areas of the country. An absolute increase of 0.07 °C is observed in the mean temperature over Pakistan during the time period of 1951–2010. Especially, the increase is more significant (0.7 °C) during the last 14 years (1997–2010). Moreover, SCIAMACHY observations were used to explore the evolution of atmospheric CO₂ levels in comparison to temperature over Pakistan. CO₂ levels have shown an increasing trend during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

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