Development and external validation of risk scores for cardiovascular hospitalisation and rehospitalisation in diabetes patients.

Development and external validation of risk scores for cardiovascular hospitalisation and rehospitalisation in diabetes patients.

J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2018 Jan 08;:

Authors: Yu D, Cai Y, Graffy J, Holman D, Zhao Z, Simmons D

Abstract
Context: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common and costly reason for hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation among patients with type 2 diabetes.
Objective: This study aimed to develop and externally validate two risk prediction models for cardiovascular hospitalisation and cardiovascular re-hospitalisation.
Design: Two independent prospective cohorts.
Setting: The derivation cohort includes 4,704 patients with type 2 diabetes from 18 general practices in Cambridgeshire. The validation cohort comprises 1,121 patients with type 2 diabetes from post-trial follow-up data.
Main Outcome Measure: Cardiovascular hospitalisation over 2 years and cardiovascular re-hospitalisation after 90 days of the prior CVD hospitalisation.
Results: The absolute rate of cardiovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation was 12.5% and 6.7% in the derivation cohort, and 16.3% and 7.0% in the validation cohort. Discrimination of the models was similar in both cohorts, with C statistics above 0.70, and excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks.
Conclusion: Two new prediction models that quantify risks of cardiovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation have been developed and externally validated. They are based on a small number of clinical measurements that are available for patients with type 2 diabetes in many developed countries in primary care settings and could serve as the tools to screen the population at high risk of cardiovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation.

PMID: 29319819 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

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