Development Of A Multivariate Prognostic Model For Pain And Activity Limitation In People With Low Back Disorders Receiving Physiotherapy

Publication date: Available online 28 May 2018
Source:Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
Author(s): Jon J. Ford, Matt C. Richards BPhysio, Luke D. Surkitt BPhysio, Alexander YP. Chan BPhysio, Sarah L. Slater, Nicholas F. Taylor, Andrew J. Hahne
ObjectiveTo identify predictors for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation in patients with early persistent low back disorders.DesignProspective inception cohort study; Setting: primary care private physiotherapy clinics in Melbourne, Australia.Participants300 adults aged 18-65 years with low back and/or referred leg pain of ≥6-weeks and ≤6-months duration.InterventionsNot applicable.Main Outcome MeasuresNumerical rating scales for back pain and leg pain as well as the Oswestry Disability Scale.ResultsPrognostic factors included sociodemographics, treatment related factors, subjective/physical examination, subgrouping factors and standardized questionnaires. Univariate analysis followed by generalized estimating equations were used to develop a multivariate prognostic model for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation. Fifty-eight prognostic factors progressed to the multivariate stage where 15 showed significant (p<0.05) associations with at least one of the three outcomes. There were five indicators of positive outcome (two types of low back disorder subgroups, paresthesia below waist, walking as an easing factor and low transversus abdominis tone) and 10 indicators of negative outcome (both parents born overseas, deep leg symptoms, longer sick leave duration, high multifidus tone, clinically determined inflammation, higher back and leg pain severity, lower lifting capacity, lower work capacity and higher pain drawing percentage coverage). The preliminary model identifying predictors of low back disorders explained up to 37% of the variance in outcome.ConclusionThis study evaluated a comprehensive range of prognostic factors reflective of both the biomedical and psychosocial domains of low back disorders. The preliminary multivariate model requires further validation before being considered for clinical use.



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