Future Trends in Demand for Liver Transplant: Birth-Cohort Effects among Patients with NASH and HCC

Background With increasing U.S. adiposity, NASH is now a leading liver transplant (LT) indication. Given its association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the burden of NASH is substantial. We analyzed birth-cohort effects among NASH LT registrants, with and without HCC. Methods All new LT registrants in UNOS (1995-2015) were identified. Birth-cohorts were: 1936-1940, 1941-1945, 1946-1950, 1951-1955, 1956-1960, 1961-1965, 1966-1970, 1971-2015. Poisson regression examined trends in LT registration, by disease etiology (NASH, HCV, OTHER), and HCC. Results We identified 182,368 LT registrants with median age 52 years (range 0-86). Nine-percent (n=16,160) had NASH, 38% (n=69,004) HCV, 53% (n=97,204) OTHER. HCC was present in: 13% (n=2,181), 27% (n=18,295), and 11% (n=10,902), of NASH, HCV, and OTHER, respectively. LT registration for HCC increased significantly from 2002-2015 across all etiologies (NASH 6%➔18%; HCV 19%➔51%; OTHER 9%➔16%, p

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