Structural decomposition analysis of embodied carbon in trade in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

Abstract

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are the first demonstration zone for low-carbon urbanization in the midwest regions of China, and the division of carbon emission reduction responsibility is an important aspect of construction of ecological civilization. In this paper, the embodied carbon emissions in trade are estimated by using an input–output model in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and then a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model is further applied to conduct decomposition analysis on factors of embodied carbon changes. Our primary findings show the following: (1) Production-based CO₂ emissions from Hubei and Hunan are higher than consumption-based CO₂ emissions. There are situations in Jiangxi and Anhui where production-based CO₂ emissions are both higher and lower than consumption-based CO₂ emissions. However, inter-regional trade implied carbon is dominated by net inflows. Moreover, the inter-regional embodied carbon emissions in trade mainly flow out to relatively developed regions, such as Jiangsu and Shanghai. The inflow of embodied carbon in trade comes mainly from relatively backward economic development areas, such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. (2) From the perspective of industry, industries in Jiangxi and Anhui are dominated by net inflow, whereas industries in Hunan and Hubei are dominated by net outflow. Meanwhile, industry in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River displays a high carbon-locked phenomenon. Specifically, the high carbon-locked outflow industries are mainly concentrated in the transportation and warehousing industry, agriculture, and the chemical industry, and the outflow provinces flow out mainly to Jiangsu, Guangdong, and other economically developed regions; high carbon-locked inflows are concentrated in metal smelting and rolling processing, food manufacturing and tobacco processing, and construction, and the provinces are mainly Hebei, Henan, and Inner Mongolia, where economic development is lacking. (3) Furthermore, the results of SDA decomposition indicate that scale effect is generally the most important factor leading to embodied carbon outflow. Meanwhile, the energy carbon emission effect, the energy intensity effect, and the structural effect are important factors—the inter-industry association effect mainly promotes the embodied carbon outflow. Consequently, based on the distinction between production and consumer responsibility, and from the perspective of scale effect and structural effect, the related policy suggests that consumers should be held responsible.

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