Prognostic Utility of Tumor Stage versus American Thyroid Association Risk Class in Thyroid Cancer

alexandrossfakianakis shared this article with you from Inoreader Prognostic Utility of Tumor Stage versus American Thyroid Association Risk Class in Thyroid Cancer via The Laryngoscope The prognostic strengths of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging and American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk classification in well-differentiated thyroid cancer were evaluated. AJCC staging served as a more prognostic model for patient survival compared to ATA risk classification. The greater predictive strength of AJCC staging became less pronounced when multiple additional demographic and clinical factors were considered. Objective To evaluate the prognostic strengths of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging and American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk classification in well-differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), and their implications in guiding medical decision-making and epidemiological study designs. Methods The 2004–2017 National Cancer Database was queried for DTC patients. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) and Kaplan–Meier analyses modeled patient mortality and overall survival, respectively. Each CPH model was evaluated by its concordance index, measure of explained randomness (MER), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results Overall, 134,226 patients were analyzed, with an average age of 48.1 ± 15.1 years (76.9% female). Univariate CPH models using AJCC staging demonstrated higher concordance indices, MERs, and AUCs than those using ATA risk classification (all p < 0.001). Multivariable CPH models using AJCC staging demonstrated higher concordance indices (p = 0.049), MERs (p = 0.046), and AUCs (p = 0.002) than those using ATA risk classification. The AICs of multivariable AJCC staging and ATA risk models were 7.564 × 104 and 7.603 × 104, respectively. AJCC stage I tumors were associated with greater overall survival than those classified as ATA low risk, whereas AJCC stages II-III and stage IV tumors demonstrated worse survival than ATA intermediate- and high-risk tumors, respectively (all p < 0.001). Conclusion AJCC staging may be a more predictive system for patient survival than ATA risk. The prognostic utility of these two systems converges when additional demographic and clinical factors are considered. AJCC staging was found to classify patients across a wider range of survival patterns than the ATA risk stratification system. Level of Evidence 4 Laryngoscope, 2022 View on Web

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