Estimation of the PM 2.5 health effects in China during 2000–2011

Abstract

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been associated with mortality, but the extent of the adverse impacts differs across various regions. A quantitative estimation of health effects attributed to PM_2.5 in China is urgently required, particularly because it has the largest population and high air pollution levels. Based on the remote sensing-derived PM_2.5 and grid population data, we estimated the acute health effects of PM_2.5 in China using an exposure-response function. The results suggest the following: (1) The proportion of the population exposed to high PM_2.5 concentrations (>35 μg/m³) increased consistently from 2000 to 2011, and the population exposed to concentrations above the threshold defined by World Health Organization (WHO) (>10 μg/m³) rose from 1,191,191,943 to 1,290,562,965. (2) The number of deaths associated with PM_2.5 exposure increased steadily from 107,608 in 2000 to 173,560 in 2010, with larger numbers in the eastern region. (3) PM_2.5 health effects decreased in three pollution control scenarios estimated for 2017, i.e., the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) scenario, the APPCAP under WHO IT-1 scenario (35 μg/m³), and the APPCAP under WHO IT-3 scenario (15 μg/m³), which indicates that pollution control can effectively reduce PM_2.5 effects on mortality.

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