One-hour glucose value as a long-term predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: the Malmo Preventive Project

Objective

To examine the predictive capability of a 1-h vs 2-h postload glucose value for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Design

Prospective, population-based cohort study (Malmö Preventive Project) with subject inclusion 1974–1992.

Methods

4934 men without known diabetes and cardiovascular disease, who had blood glucose (BG) measured at 0, 20, 40, 60, 90 and 120 min during an OGTT (30 g glucose per m² body surface area), were followed for 27 years. Data on cardiovascular events and death were obtained through national and local registries. Predictive capabilities of fasting BG (FBG) and glucose values obtained during OGTT alone and added to a clinical prediction model comprising traditional cardiovascular risk factors were assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

Median age was 48 (25th–75th percentile: 48–49) years and mean FBG 4.6 ± 0.6 mmol/L. FBG and 2-h postload BG did not independently predict cardiovascular events or death. Conversely, 1-h postload BG predicted cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and remained an independent predictor of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01–1.17, P = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05–1.16, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for various traditional risk factors. Clinical risk factors with added 1-h postload BG performed better than clinical risk factors alone, in predicting cardiovascular death (likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.0001; significant IDI, P = 0.0003).

Conclusion

Among men without known diabetes, addition of 1-h BG, but not FBG or 2-h BG, to clinical risk factors provided incremental prognostic yield for prediction of cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality.

http://ift.tt/2Cia66J